Burundians to vote for a referendum: a public plea? Or elite reversals?

President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi

May, 2018, Burundi is convening  The referendum that aims to modify the 2005 constitution that emanates from the Arusha peace negotiations.
The Arusha peace agreements that was signed in 2000, was a solution to end a 12-year civil war that claimed more than 300,000 lives.

Changes in the drafted new constitution

On 15, March, 2017. Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza, signed a decree that put in place National Commission in charge of proposing the amendment of the National constitution.

The drafted constitution proposes that:
1) The president of the republic is elected for a seven-year term (from five in the current constitution)  which is renewable but adds, "no president can govern for more than two consecutive terms.

2) a post of prime minister will be created,. He will be  from the party which wins the election, and this individual will also be the head of government.

3) The vice president  post will be one instead of  two as it is  today. He will come from an ethnic group and party that differs from those of the president,...

A public plea?

In Rwanda, before the amendment of the  2003 constitution that was modified later in 2015, people petitioned the parliament asking the amendment. Claiming that they want that their Darling president Paul Kagame stays in office.

It's neighbor in the south, Burundi is mired in a deep political crisis, triggered when opposition groups went down in streets to defend Arusha peace agreements, protesting against elections in April 2015 that enabled Mr Nkurunziza to stay on for a third five-year term.

The victory of the 54-years-old leader plunged the country into turmoil, with hundreds killed. Nearly 400,000 have fled the country.

In liberal democracy, Election period is a time where the incumbent government enforces the will and views of the people as the power drives from them.

In Burundi, the country that was torn by Civil Wars since its independence, the situation deteriotes.

1) CNARED calls for boycott

The opposition coalition in exile calls for a boycott of the referendum. Charles Nditije,  The President of CNARED said that the step that was taken by the government of Mr Pierre Nkurunziza to change the constitution risks a civil war. And he insisted that it is a declaration of war against the Burundians.

2) Civil societies fear a civil war and a putsch

"Teshwa ute", a coalition of 23 civil societies  has called people to resist against the revision of the Constitution. They say that it violates the existing Constitution and hinders any peaceful solution through dialogues.

Vital Nshimirimana, one of activists, appeals to the international community to help to stop the process Because it risks to throw the country into a civil war and a coup d’état.

Irregularities occurred

It still early to find out irregularities in the campaign to revise the constitution but happenings show that some irregularities have already  happened.

1) The electoral code was violated 

Iwacu-Burundi,  a website that operates in Burundi, says that the Burundian Ombudsman in Mukaza commune and the Assistant to the Minister of the Interior in Rumonge. They clearly called on the population to “vote yes” to the amendment.
According to the law,  what these honarables did is unlawful.

The second paragraph of Article 25 states that the election campaign is opened by a presidential decree, 16 days before the polling day, and ends 48 hours before the elections. Remember we are  in a mid January while election is expected to happen in May.

2) Burundi National electoral commission(CENI) admitted to be incompetent 

In democratic countries, electoral commissions are independent institutions. They set laws and conditions to follow to create a healthy competitive election.

Speaking about the early campaigning, Mr Prosper Ntahogwamiye,  The CENI spokesperson,  accepted that the time to campaign for or against the amendment to the Constitution has not come yet. Prosper Ntahogwamiye admitted the the national electoral commission is not competent to control the action of the government officials who started campaigning (Iwacu-Burundi)

Election was manipulated

In  many  African countries, the incumbent parties tend to manipulate  elections in order to minimize the chances of the opposition parties to win elections. According to Domo and Roussias,  the electoral manipulation can be grouped into  three  parts:  pre-election manipulation,  election-day manipulation, and post-election manipulation.

The case in Burundi is pre-election manipulation. Pre-election  manipulation include: formal or informal restriction on opposition candidates’ registration, campaigning,  rallies,  public assemblies, and media coverage; and  intimidation  of voters, opposition candidates and the independent media.

1) Reports from Burundi say that Several arrests continue inside the country. Most of those who are being arrested are opponents of the revision. National police and administration say that those who were arrested, are accused of organizing “clandestine meetings and mobilizing people to vote against the constitution revision.”

2) First Deputy-President demonized/dehumanized oppositions.

Gaston Sindimwo,  The First Deputy-President of the Republic, called civil societies that created a coalition to campaign against the revision and CNARED, the puppet organizations that cannot stop the country from moving forward.

In techniques of Propaganda, what Mr Gaston did, is called Demonizing the enemy. Demonizing the enemy is Making individuals from the opposing nation, from a different ethnic group, or those who support the opposing viewpoint appear to be subhuman (e.g., the Vietnam War-era term "gooks" for National Front for the Liberation of South Vietnam  aka Vietcong, or "VC", soldiers), worthless, or immoral, through suggestion or false accusations.

Dehumanizing  is also a term used synonymously with demonizing, the latter usually serves as an aspect of the former.

Before the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, the former government used to call Tutsi: snakes,  traitors,....  So it is not a good thing for high profile person like vice president to dehumanize his fellow countrymen (apponents) because it starts by words, ends by killings or extermination.

3) Agathon Rwasa fears his security 

Agathon Rwasa, a former  rebellion group (FNL) leader, now first deputy-speaker of Burundian parliament, says that he fears his security after replacing his military guards by police guards without explanations.

Rwasa noted that the Burundi ruling party, CNDD-FDD is trying to harm him  or force him into exile after he accused the incumbent government to rule the country by the iron stick during the 4th round of inter-Burundian talks in Arusha.

He also says that the change of his guards shouldn't happen at this moment where the country political mood is deteriorating at the eve of a referendum.

Agathon is guarded by military elements since 2015 after escaping many deadly attacks years before.

 Is constitution amendment elite reversals?

As usual,  In a  democracy, elections have three major functions:

1) They serve as a means for people to choose their representatives. This could be exercised in choosing their representatives to a  legislative or  an executive office (e.g. Presidency).

2) They  are  a means of choosing governments.

3) They give legitimacy to the  political systems (Dr. Wondwosen Teshome, 2008).

Democracy scholars say that Democracy can't happen without elections, But behind this, there are destabilizing factors where authoritarian rulers conducts election not to favour Democracy but:

1) To legitimize their rule  in  the  eyes of their subjects or to secure international aid.

2) To recruit  new  local supporters.

3) To discipline presidential majority or to pacify internal party problems.

4) To gauge their own popular support and measure the  performance  of  their allies.

5) And to facilitate  their graceful  exit  since  losing  power at the ballot box is much better than violent overthrow.

Conclusion

First of all, We need to pay a huge tribute to His Excellence Pierre Nkunziza for being able to abolt the 2015 military take over. We know that it was a troubling times and he did a good work to restore the country to order,  but we need to look beyond that stabilizing factors.

Burundi is the country where ethnic-based politics torn the country. Yes! Burundi leadership confirmed that they are able to resist against whoever wants to overthrow the government different from the way the country used to be.

But however solid you are, time comes you exit the political stage. Burundi is the country that tolerates certain level of criticism, So let's the coming election of May be another step to consolidate democracy.

If the constitution changes get a support, President Nkurunziza will be allowed to stay in office till 2034. This is good moment to prepare a post-him Burundi by setting a sustainable system and institutions to rule the country without him.

Nkurunziza,  a good postor who prays for National issues and potatoes in farm undoubtedly he knows the story of Jesus.  So let's this moment be a good time  to gloam twelve disciples who will lead the country to guarantee a continuity in Burundi.

End

Notes

1) Elite reversals  is  the  attempt of  some  African  leaders  to  amend  the constitutions  to  allow themselves another term  in  office (Dr. Wondwosen Teshome, 2008).

2) Public plea: this term refers National decision that was taken to implement the demand of the people.

References

1) The East African (Kenyan newspaper): "Burundi government backs constitution change", October 26, 2017.

2) Iwacu-burundi.org: "Une Ceni démissionnaire ?" , January 15, 2018.

3) Iwacu-burundi.org: "Burundi politicians’ opinions diverge on constitution amendment", May 05, 2017.

4) Iwacu-burundi.org: Agathon Rwasa: “CNDD-FDD persecutes me”, January 8, 2018.

5) Burundi Electoral cide: "LOI  N0  1/  20  DU  3  JUIN  2014  PORTANT  REVISION  DE  LA  LOI  N°1/22  DU  18 SEPTEMBRE  2009  PORTANT  CODE  ELECTORAL."

Janvier KARANGWA is a media specialist.
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Email: karangwajanvier55@gmail.com
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